Antepost: Brown Advisory Novice Chase

It will always be the RSA to many racing fans, but the Brown Advisory Is shaping up to be a decent race assuming all the protagonists turn up. Willie Mullins holds the aces in this race with the top 2 in the market and a few others of course entered up. However I'm unsure what Willie will send to this race, despite my best effort at trying to read between the lines with the Dublin Racing Festival sure to provide further clues.

This is the 4th preview of 28 races, with already 3 up which include the Mares Hurdle, Ryanair Chase and the Stayers Hurdle. Someone made a comment about putting Irish Point up at 6/1 for the Stayers when you aren't confident he will turn up. Well it's an antepost preview 8 weeks out from the event, and all horses will have their question marks whether they will turn up. Granted 6/1 isn't a brilliant price but I'm quietly confident that will be his target in the end even with connections mulling over the Aintree Hurdle. Considering my aim is to preview 28 races, there will be plenty of non-runners and it's a chance you have to take - I'm posting my selections in the view that they will turn up. Not all will, period.

Brown Advisory Novices Chase - 3m1/2f - Wednesday 13th March 2024

Grangeclare West - 7/2

A big talking horse last season given his connections and price tag however he was a huge disappointment where he seemed to struggle with some issues throughout his campaign after an impressive opening season win in a novice hurdle. He was always on my radar last season as Willie Mullins said he was a 'top class novice' coming into the season and there seemed big expectations. I imagine he wasn't on many punters horses to follow list coming into the new season, but has made an impressive breakthrough over fences and tops the market in the Brown Advisory. A strong travelling horse who jumps well, he looks like he has a strong chance on paper and will likely be Paul Townend's pick. Likely to run in the Flogas at the Dublin Racing Festival, he only has to run well and be strong in the finish to cement his chances even further. Good chance.

Fact To File - 5/1

A horse who will naturally bring a curiousity factor amongst racing fans given he went straight from a bumper campaign to novice chasing, without even seeing a hurdle. Not many horses do that anymore, and after his impressive win at Leopardstown last month he rocketed to the top of the market in this race. Set to run at the Flogas at the DRF as well, this will likely dictate where he runs at the Festival. He looks a Gold Cup contender for next season already, and whether his trainer wants to overface him in this gruelling race given his lightly raced profile is another matter. If he does go, he is another with a huge chance.

Stay Away Fay - 6/1

A horse with an endless amount of stamina seemingly. When I think of the RSA as a race in the last couple of decades - he would be my sort of horse for the race and the right profile. Winner of last years Albert Bartlett, he's a thorough stayer who looks another Gold Cup contender for next season. He's been seen twice this season and had to make the running on both occasions. For an idle horse who doesn't look comfortable making the running, it's a testament to his ability that he has made the running and been able to fight them off - beating both Grey Dawning and Giovinco in their respective races. The old course may not be his ideal course however the stiff undulations will allow him to lay up with the 'speedier' horses and he'll no doubt be the strongest in the finish out of all these. He has a big chance.

Grey Dawning - 9/1

An impressive winner of the Hampton at Warwick last weekend, he's really caught the eye of me, and many others, throughout the season with his attitude and smooth travelling way. His jumping has been iffy towards the latter end of his races at times, but on the whole he's a solid enough jumper. The way he devoured the hill after making a bad mistake at Cheltenham in a novice chase last month showed me that he's a 3 miler and would really suit this race on the old course which suits good travellers like him. He's already ran 4 times over fences, and if he goes straight to Cheltenham that would be a positive for his chances. The Scilly Isles at Sandown has been mentioned and I'd be wary of his chances at the Festival if he takes part in this. I do wonder if his connections will aim him at Aintree however.

Corbetts Cross - 10/1

A long term fancy of mine for the Turners in the summer, he's had an up and down start to his chasing career so far. I thought last season he looked like he had a bit speed, and given he won over 2 miles there was credence to that theory. He's looked full of ability this season, however he hasn't jumped well enough and the vibes seem that he'll be aimed at the National Hunt Chase. I suppose it all relies on how he runs at the DRF, and he comes off the back of a solid run behind Grangeclare West at Christmas - however he now has his number twice over fences this season and it'll be a surprise to see him turn that form around. His owner has Fact To File, and they will look to split these up as well. If he can go close at the DRF, he could be a player still in this race.

Embassy Gardens - 16/1

Only seen once this season winning over 3 miles in a beginners chase at Punchestown. A stayer who disappointed in the Albert Bartlett last season, I think he'll likely be aimed at the National Hunt Chase. Entered for the Flogas, I wonder if he'll run in the Grade 3 novice chase at Naas next weekend, as a prep for the National Hunt Chase. However I'm hoping they have Nick Rockett earmarked for that race.

Monty's Star - 16/1

His only entry for the novice chases at the Festival, and all being well he should be Rachael Blackmore's mount for this Grade 1. 3rd in the beginners chase won by the aforementioned Corbetts Cross, he was a little unlucky that day being trapped in a bunched finish. Next seen at Punchestown, he jumped well in heavy ground and easily fended off the challenge of Three Card Brag. He's not entered at the DRF, so I expect him to take in the Grade 3 at Naas next weekend or the Ten Up at Navan in February - however that could be a quick turnaround for the festival. It's well noted that his win at Clonmel in mid February in a novice hurdle perhaps stunted his performance in the Albert Bartlett where he pulled up, hopefully they don't make the same mistake twice. He looks a graded performer over fences and a real old fashioned staying chaser. Has decent claims here and represents a decent price.

Hermes Allen - 20/1

I still can't believe Hermes Allen was punted into 9/4f for the Ballymore last year, given his opponents, and he ran dismally back in 6th. I think he's just short of Grade 1 class at this level, and I can also see him running in the Turners with Harry Cobden wanting to split him and Stay Away Fay. He would probably have a better chance in the Turners, and given what his trainer did with Stage Star last year - he could be a springer in that race on the day. He ran a solid race staying all the way to the line against Il Est Francais at Kempton over Christmas, and I can see him lining up in the Paddy Power Gold Cup next season like the aforementioned Stage Star.

Nick Rockett - 20/1

I'm hoping Nick Rockett will end up in the National Hunt Chase, however he needs to qualify and it's hoped his trainer Willie Mullins will choose to run him in the Grade 3 at Naas this coming weekend rather than the DRF over 2m5. A horse who's shown he relaxes, jumps and finds for pressure, he looks a good type for this race but I'm hoping given Willie Mullins has 2 strong runners at the front of the market in Grangeclare West and Fact To File - he will opt to run Nick Rockett in the National Hunt Chase assuming he qualifies. If he does take his chance here, he has decent each way claims especially if he runs well in his next outing.

Affordale Fury - 33/1

If you are looking for horses priced at 33/1 or bigger that represent a little bit of value, then Affordale Fury looks one. Last years 2nd in the Albert Bartlett looks set to contest the Flogas before a tilt at the Brown Advisory (only entry), and 33/1 looks a bit of value from an each way point of view right now. Ran twice over fences so far, he disappointed in the 3 mile Florida Pearl at Punchestown back in November. There seemed to be excuses that day as his jockey seemed worried about his mount throughout, and he jumped badly right indicating a potential issue. If he adapts to going left handed at Leopardstown and runs a decent race, he has each way claims here given his cracking run at the Festival last season.

Giovinco - 33/1

A talented horse who's had an up and down novice campaign so far this season. Unseated on his first outing of the season at Carlisle, he won a 4 runner race at Aintree with many fences dotted out due to low sun. Next up he was beaten by Stay Away Fay in another small field event, being outstayed after travelling well throughout. Big things were expected in the Kauto Star, however he was never catching Il Est Francais and never really travelled throughout. It was only a little over 2 weeks after his previous run, and it likely came too soon. A talented horse with plenty of ability, this year looks like he is still maturing physically and mentally and would only have place claims at best if he ran here.

Minella Cocooner - 33/1

An impressive enough winner at Navan today over 3 miles, he's qualified for the National Hunt Chase now and that looks the easier option. A Grade 1 winner in his novice hurdle days, he was keen and buzzy with a hood on. He looks more mature and professional now, and looks like he still retains a fair amount of ability but beating Senior Chief by 2L doesn't strike me as Grade 1 form for this race. He might be one for the Ten Up back at Navan next month and could improve from there - however I don't expect him to be the winner of this race. I can see him being a Thyestes horse next year for his connections, and a National type.

Sandor Clegane - 33/1

Like Affordale Fury, another horse who might represent a little bit of value at 33/1 if you're willing to forgive his previous runs this season. Beaten twice in novice chases so far, it's not due to bad jumping that he's been beaten in both. Ran over a trip well short of his best over 2 miles to start the season, he ran creditably there finishing off well before being well beaten in the Florida Pearl where he finished 2nd. He was supposed to run in a beginners chase won today by the above Minella Cocooner but pulled out due to a stone bruise. If they can win a beginners chase, he could turn up in the RSA and run a big race just like he did in the Albert Bartlett last year.

Broadway Boy - 40/1

Broadway Boy has a big following after 4 excellent runs this season in his novice chasing campaign. Already won twice over fences at Cheltenham this season including a lucrative handicap beating established horses including Protektorat, he blotted his copybook last time out at Warwick where he was well beaten by Grey Dawning. To my eye it looked a run too many after 4 hard runs in less than 4 months and if he's freshened up for the Festival, he's a big price at 40/1. He could go for the National Hunt Chase however, and I think he'd have outstanding claims in that race if they can find a competent amateur rider. If he does turn up here, he can definitely run a big race and certainly outrun his current odds.

Facile Vega - 40/1

Unlikely to turn up in this race, but it wouldn't half surprise me if Willie Mullins threw him in here especially if he disappoints at the DRF. He jumps like he needs further than 2 miles and with Gaelic Warrior likely to be the main stable player over the middle distance, don't rule out his participation here. Not a bet at this stage.

Favori De Champdou - 40/1

Disappointed at Leopardstown over Christmas after winning the Florida Pearl at Punchestown in November. He will likely be aimed at the National Hunt Chase, after he was namechecked by his trainer for that back in November. His record going left handed is abysmal however, and might be worth avoiding for any race at Cheltenham.

Three Card Brag - 66/1

A big price given his form as a novice hurdler including a decent 5th in the Albert Bartlett. Another horse namechecked for the National Hunt Chase, hes ran creditably in both his novice chases this year. He looks a little tripless however and can't be trusted right now. No idea what his next steps are, but 66/1 isn't the worst price in the road if you think he will go to the Brown Advisory. I'd prefer him to go the National Hunt Chase.

Conclusion:

There's plenty of water to go under the bridge in this race with the Flogas at the DRF being a key race for a few including Grangeclare West, Fact To File, Corbetts Cross and one of Embassy Gardens or Nick Rockett. Whilst Stay Away Fay will need to also confirm his quality in a tricky Cotswold Chase against established older horses.

Horses like Corbetts Cross (National Hunt Chase) and Fact To File (Turners) could have other targets, whereas I'm 90% certain that Grangeclare West and Stay Away Fay have this race as their main target whatever happens in the coming weeks leading up to the Festical. My idea of the winner for a few weeks now has been STAY AWAY FAY, and I'm still confident he will be my selection after his prep run in the Cotswold Chase too. A winner at the Festival last year which is a major positive, he looks a solid jumper with bags of stamina and there isn't a better trainer of 3 mile chasers than his trainer Paul Nicholls. He rates the bet at 5/1 non-runner-no-bet with Skybet and William Hill. If he runs well in the Cotswold Chase he will shorten further, however given the potential amount of quality runners in this race - he should hold at a fairly decent price on the day too.

There are a number of horses who stand out as each way value too especially if you like to take riskier punters without the NRNB concession with Sandor Clegane and Affordale Fury being 2 you'd give a squeak to. My choice would be MONTY'S STAR at 16/1, especially as this is likely to be his target with it being his only entry at the Festival. He jumps well, has bags of stamina and looks exactly the type of a handy 3 mile staying chaser that his trainer excels with (Minella Indo springs to mind).

If you're looking for a massive price then I expect Broadway Boy to outrun his odds at 40/1 but he might end up in the National Hunt Chase if that looks weaker on paper. If he's freshened up well, expect a big performance from a horse who's already delivered a solid 150s performance at the track.

Bets:

Stay Away Fay - 1pt win @ 5/1 (Skybet NRNB)

Monty's Star - 0.5pts ew @ 16/1 (Bet365)