Longshots 11/11/23

Last week was a good week for the Longshots blog with Knickerbockerglory winning at 8/1 (sp 10/1) whilst Zhiguli placed at 16/1 (sp 20/1) albeit thanks to 2 fallers at the last fence. Still, it gives the blog a profit of +7.70 to advised stakes which can't be sniffed at so early in the season. A bumper Saturday awaits with last weeks abandonment Down Royal taking place this Saturday alongside Aintree, Wincanton, Kelso and Gowran Park. The jumps is back!

Wincanton 1:15 - 2m4 Handicap Chase 0-125

This is a really open handicap where Venetia Williams holds a good chance if she can work her magic with another unexposed French chaser, whilst you can make a case for a few others including Midnight Midge and Ede'iffs Elton. However there are 2 I'll give a favourable mention to. First up is DIBBLE DECKER, who looks open to improvement off his mark of 125 for Tom Lacey. A non stayer when last seen in the spring at Ludlow, he has to go right handed and should have a race in him on a right handed track going into his second season over fences.

There are a number of horses who like to lead in this race, Dibble Decker being one of them, and the rag of the field STORMY FLIGHT is another too. That's a bit of a worry with my 2 selections but I'll take a chance one of them will run well with both trading at double digit odds. Stormy Flight was a consistent hurdler back in 2020 before losing his confidence thereafter, and was switched to fences last season, coming back in February after a wind operation to finish 2nd to Monbeg Genius. He has the ability to pick up a handicap and conditions should suit (won twice right handed and went close at Wincanton before), and assuming it's not too soft I expect him to outrun his odds as the rag of the field. He also had a pipe opener at this track last month too so should be more hard fit for this. It's also worth noting he was backed for a decent handicap at Uttoxeter (7/1 > 11/2) in May so connections may think he's open to winning a race soon.

Bets:

Dibble Decker 1pt ew @ 14/1 (Betfair 4 places)

Stormy Flight 1.25pts ew @ 20/1 (Coral, BetVictor 4 places)

Wincanton 2:25 - Badgers Beer Premier Handicap Chase

It would be heartwarming to see Frodon win the Badgers Beer at the age of 11, and he comes back to win the race again after his triumph last year. The horse has been around for years and ran in the Triumph Hurdle in 2016 believe it or not, and can still run at the top level at the age of 11 which is remarkable. For a blog that tries to find horses at big prices, Frodon at 7/2 doesn't appeal. Nor does putting up my main fancy Threeunderthrufive at 10/3 either. The latter runs first time after a wind op and could possibly dominate this field if he's allowed to, and I would imagine he will pick up a big handicap at some point this year off 147 or lower. However I don't trust this horse to put his all in if the going gets tough, I'd just like to hope he can dominate without getting into a fight.

I was half tempted to put up Certainly Red but his price has crashed from 16s to 10s and doesn't appeal at that price, so I've plumped for a horse who is a pretty ridiculous price as the rank outsider of the field in the form horse through the summer jumps campaign. COURTLAND was last seen in the farcical Old Roan chase/bumper at Aintree last month and actually finished a respectable 6th with a number of smart horses behind. Previous to that, he had ran through the summer winning 4 out of his last 5 with the loss being a 3/4L second to Born Famous in the premier Summer Plate at Market Rasen giving a fair amount of weight to the mare that day. Rated 144, he might be handicapped to the top of his ability, prefer better ground and be feeling the effects of a long summer - but he looks the type to definitely outrun his odds at 28/1 and seems a horse on paper who'll you want to side with now given his run of confidence this year especially with Bet365 and William Hill paying 4 places. The small shout goes to the Bowen runner in an open looking contest.

Bets:

Courtland - 1pt ew @ 28/1 (Bet365, WH 4 places)

Aintree 2:10 - 2m Handicap Chase 0-130

Master Chewy looks a favourites chance after his impressive win at Aintree last month, and he returns off a 10lb higher mark now. I don't think 10lb will stop him as he looks to have a few more pounds improvement in him, and he likely go close whatever. Djelo is another Venetia Williams horse who will improve for fences through the season, whilst I expect Ukantango to be better than a 124 rated chaser. However outside of those 3, I'll give a small mention to ONE FINE MAN, half brother to American Mike, who moved yards to a primarily flat trainer in Declan Carroll from James Moffat. Not sure why?

Anyway, 4 runs over fences last season including 2 wins, he beat Richmond Lake getting plenty of weight and looks an improving chaser on flat tracks, where this gutsy little horse can jump and gallop to the line strongly. One question would be the ground, so a small tentative selection is the play of the day in this race. He's one keeping in mind for small field handicaps for the rest of the season.

Bets

One Fine Man 0.5pts ew @ 10/1 (William Hill)

+prices will be updated if bigger+

Profit and Loss

+7.70pts