Longshots 16/12/23

Another good weekend of racing awaits, and I have to admit I'm really looking forward to tomorrow at Cheltenham. The next few weeks are going to be fantastic for racing fans, and I'm determined to enjoy it and savour it. Who knows how many more years we will have of top class horse racing, given the state of things right now?

1:50 Cheltenham - 2m4f - Virgin Bet December Gold Cup Handicap Chase

So Scottish was the antepost selection for the blog a couple of weeks ago for this race, and he is confirmed to run. He has a good chance if he can jump soundly, and the 7/1 with 4 places on offer at the time looks a decent bet currently given only 12 run for our antepost punt.

I know I shouldn't be doing this but there is one lurking at 33/1, and unfortunately I'm a sucker for punishment but DO YOUR JOB runs off a mark of 136 over fences and runs off a weight of 10st2lb, which gives him a chance of running well here. I think we all know that Do Your Job is not trustworthy, probably wants a flat track and it's not even a given that he actually wants this trip as he is a little tripless most of the time - but the handicapper has given him a decent chance having been dropped 10lb from a career high of 146.

I think the crucial thing here is that Do Your Job will run off a lower weight, where in the past he's had to lump top weight in a couple of handicap chases at Ascot and last time out at Cheltenham. The ground should suit if it dries out enough, and he's capable of running well here. I think the big sticking point is whether he really wants it when the going gets tough especially on an undulating track but the 33s on offer with 4 places is tempting enough given the conditions.

Bets:

Do Your Job - 1pt ew @ 33/1 (Bet365 4 places)

3:35 Cheltenham - 2m4f - Virgin Bet Mares Handicap Hurdle

A decent contest with a few last time winners, and some fairly high profile mares including Theatre Glory and Nurse Susan. Bonttay heads the market and will go well, whilst Theatre Glory could outclass these. She has to give weight all round to some decent mares, whilst Nurse Susan looks well weighted off 125. She flopped on her chasing debut but she will likely be better then her current mark and will improve through the season after an injury ravaged time since finishing 4th in the Mares Novice in 2022 which is fine form. I always prefer to watch horses who come back from fences to hurdles on their first run back unless they are too big of a price and she is only priced at 6/1 - however she will win this season off 125 sometime that's for sure.

A last time out winner Coquelicot could improve further off 132 having smashed up Kateira at Kempton in a listed race and is a genuine mare with some good form in the book. She is interesting. One who might not be well handicapped in a sense like Nurse Susan, but if you ignore her last run then she can outrun her odds as the rank outsider of the field and that's ILOVETHENIGHTLIFE. Joe Tizzard's mare was last seen pulling up at Wincanton off top weight, and I haven't found an excuse for that run. Maybe the weight was too harsh for her first time out, and it's hoped running off a weight of 10st9lb in this contest will allow her to travel easier especially on softer ground.

Highly thought of by her trainer, she prefers softer ground and the ground should suit at Cheltenham with it being sticky and holding according to jockeys after the first today. She won a Grade 2 handicap at Newbury in the spring so has ability no doubting and might just outrun her odds of 20/1 with Skybet paying 4 places.

Bets:

Ilovethenightlife - 1pt ew @ 20/1 (Skybet 4 places)