Longshots + 25/11/23

It was a shame to see Lookaway get nailed on the run in by the smart Iberico Lord in the Greatwood last Sunday. My other 2 selections both pulled up and I'll have to give it up with Ain't That A Shame going forwards. It puts the Longshots blog in a negative profit of minus -4.4pts to advised stakes. There will be big periods of losing bets so we'll have to stick in there until the form turns. Again I put up Afadil and Ain't That A Shame when I didn't have a huge amount of interest in either and it was more of a price thing , but that's easier to say now.

I'll be putting up my longer priced selections in this blog however I have a best bet that is currently priced at short odds which I will stick up here. A novice hurdler who was one of the most impressive horses I've seen so far.

On a side note, it's disappointing to see the field sizes in the UK this weekend. There should be 2 really good cards at Ascot and Haydock, but the field sizes are pathetic. The BHA have many issues including funding the sport going forward but getting a grip on the amount of racing should be a huge priority. There is too much racing and the changes they've made for next year don't even touch the sides, simple as. We have utter clowns running/ruining our sport.

2:20 Haydock - 3m1/2f - Betfair Stayers Handicap Hurdle

I put up the well backed Lord Snootie at a massive 25/1 on Monday, and he's been well backed through the week being knocked into as low as 6/1 in some places. Whilst I think he has an each way squeak, I wouldn't be backing him at anything lower than double digits. He's currently trading around 9/1 which is a shade short given the front 2 in the market look solid.

Crambo could easily be a 150+ horse in the future whilst Slate Lane has been plotted up for this race and Emmet Mullins will no doubt get plenty more improvement out of him. His target has been this race and it will take a good one to beat him, or Crambo.

There is one horse who does look overpriced at 14/1 and his new trainer might eek out some more improvement off a lowly rating of 127, and that's EMITOM. The horse feels like he's been around for a lifetime but is only 9, and since his move to Alan King in March last year he's won off a mark off 122 least season, whilst he's also finished 2nd to a decent horse trained by Harry Derham in his first run of the campaign at Newbury.

Formerly trained by Warren Greatrex, the stable move is a real positive as Greatrex has habit of losing horses after bright moments in their career and the mark of 127 gives him a low enough rating for the 9 year old to improve off, and Alan King will no doubt have the ability to get this horse back to some sort of decent ability. Suffered with problems throughout his career, he's been working well according to his trainer and has a decent shout of filling the frame and possibly winning given his low rating, whilst the track and trip will suit.

Bets:

Emitom - 1.25pts ew @ 14/1 (Bet365 5 places)

BEST BET

12:05 Haydock - 2m - Newton Novices Hurdle (Grade 2)

One of the most eye catching performances this season has to be a novice hurdler trained by Lucinda Russell, and that is the best bet for the weekend. PRIMOZ is fancied by his trainer (who also owns a stake in him) to be a potential top class horse and caught my eye big time in his first race over rules at Ayr. He beat 3 decent horses that day with I Love My Baie (who runs here), Florida Dreams (Grade 2 Aintree bumper winner) and Indeevar Bleu (highly touted Olly Murphy horse).

Primoz made all that day, jumping on the whole well enough, before he kicked away winning by 5 lengths. It was his finishing burst that really took me, and he looks a potential listed/graded novice to my eyes. Bowenspark was impressive but might want a little further and a potentially a little softer, whilst the Fergal O'Brien horse Kamsinas has fair form behind Lookaway, but I think Primoz is the speedier type. I'll take the 3/1 about Primoz with the ground and the track suiting him. The only question mark would be how tough he is for this race as he avoided a bumper campaign whilst his opponents gained crucial racing experience.

Bets:

Primoz - 1pt win @ 3/1 (General)

Longshots P/L:

-4.4pts

Antepost P/L:

+2.5pts