Ryanair Chase Preview

I'll be trying to preview as many races as possible for the Cheltenham Festival in the run up to the event. Whether I can preview all 28 races is up for debate but I'll try my best. Although it's really difficult to preview races weeks out from the event, most fans generally know the make up of the races months out although there will be plenty of water going under the bridge between then and now. I'll try my best to pick apart races, although a lot of things will change and there will be plenty of injuries and a changing of targets for horses in the lead up.

Out of fhe 28 races, let's start with the Ryanair Chase which is staged on the 3rd day of the Festival (Thursday). I'll try and lay out a small preview of each horse who I think will run or be a contender to run in the race, with a small conclusion at the end if I can find a bet.

Ryanair Chase - 2m5f

ALLAHO - 5/2f

Sets the standard after a good run in the King George, where he ran a brave race into 3rd. The race didn't suit Allaho, with Frodon setting a good gallop and the No Risk At All gelding wasn't able to dictate the race. I think the race panned out for a closer like Hewick after Frodon, and then Shishkin had softened up Allaho and Bravemansgame in the home straight. It was still a cracking run for a horse who wants to go left handed and a more galloping track. I still think something has to run to a mark of 165 to beat Allaho, and 3/1 or bigger will be a fair enough price for the Cheveley Park horse. The only nagging doubt would be that younger legs will go past him in March.

STAGE STAR - 7/1

Stage Star is one of those younger legs that could improve past Allaho, but comes off the back of pulling up in a handicap over course and distance on New Years Day. He had give mountains of weight to ofher runners that day, and made a couple of mistakes in heavy ground before pulling up when out of contention in the home straight. A winner of the Turners Novice Chase last season at the Festival, he was my idea of the winner before his last outing. If they can get him back fit and firing, I'd expect him to take on Allaho from the front and have a good chance of winning. The big P in his form figures, and an injury worry tempers enthusiasm but 7/1 offers a little bit of insurance on that part.

ENVOI ALLEN - 10/1

Last years winner, and fan favourite, Envoi Allen will attempt to plunge this prize for a 2nd year in a row. A complete enigma, it would be a huge negative if he was to run again before March. A horse who's probably at his best fresh due to his breathing issues, he was a late non-runner for the Savills Chase at Leopardstown due to the testing ground, and it's hoped he will go straight to the Ryanair now to defend his crown. He has top class ability, and is well loved on his blog, however I expect there to be a couple better this year in this race including his fellow Cheveley Park owned favourite Allaho. It would still be great to see him finish in the money given his legend-like status within the racing community.

EDWARDSTONE - 12/1

It was a huge shame to see Edwardstone bomb out in the Champion Chase when a big clash between him and Energumene was hyped up for many weeks. I still don't know what happened to him that day, and he's shown he's still got top class ability having mixed it with Jonbon on heavy ground in the Tingle Creek when defending his crown last month. Edwardstone, who has always jumped superbly and is a prime example of horses who are able to jump well, always giving themselves a chance in the top races, and I'd like to think he has an each way squeak as long as he stays the trip. He's only gone beyond 2 miles once, finishing a staying on 3rd in an Aintree handicap over hurdles, and it's not a given he wants further at the age of 10. He may just be a specialist 2 miler. 12/1 gives the option of taking that insurance as an each way proposition, and is classy enough to be in the frame. One for the shortlist as a non-runner no bet option.

APPRECIATE IT - 14/1

I think this lad is the each way value in this race as we stand. The only issue is where he runs next and what sort of preparation he'll have going into this race. Entered in the Champion Chase too, he will likely be kept to the middle distance as he doesn't possess the speed over 2 miles anymore. Beaten 41 lengths in the Savills Chase, he just plain didn't stay but ran ok in hindsight. The experience won't of been lost on him, and he can run a big race in the Ryanair. He looks a different horse to last year, where he constantly lugged around in his races and as long as he's 100% going into the Ryanair with a suitable prep (perhaps going in fresh may work) then 14/1 is the each way bet as we speak. Despite the small field, and slow enough pace, the positive tactics worked well in the John Durkan where the form looks strong with Galopin Des Champs and Fastorslow - I hope we see similar tactics in the Ryanair.

JONBON - 14/1

Unlikely to run in the Ryanair unless he performs dismally in the Clarence House Chase vs his old nemesis El Fabiolo, he was my idea of the Ryanair winner at the start of the season. I don't think his finishing effort is always the strongest at Cheltenham, however he was very impressive in the Sholer Chase, and should probably stick to 2 miles for now. Saying that, if he was rerouted to the Ryanair he'd hold huge claims.

BANBRIDGE - 25/1

Probably the biggest value bet in this race given he's a Grade 1 winner over a middle distance trip, winning the Manifesto at Aintree last season. Not seen this season, I believe there hasn't been any injury or niggles but his trainer Joseph O'Brien has been avoiding the heavy ground all winter. Likely to start his campaign next week at Kempton, if he runs well, he could halve in price and be a live danger for the Ryanair. The only huge issue is that he's hugely ground dependent, but 25/1 is certainly a very big price if you're prepared to risk your cash.

FIL DOR - 33/1

Whilst there is some each way value in the race with Appreciate It, and to a certain extent Banbridge, I think this lad could be overpriced given his form this season. Ran twice this season, he's finished second to Grade 1 winners El Fabiolo and Dinoblue which is strong form. A decent jumper, he does find jumping at pace over 2 miles a bit too much for him and is likely to step up in trip to tackle the Ryanair in the spring. Only 6 years old, he's got improvement in him over fences and he's a consistent and likeable horse who always tries his heart out. Likely to find 1 or 2 better on the day, he will certainly give you a run for your money at 33/1 and represents really solid each way value.

CLASSIC GETAWAY - 33/1

Classic Getaway has only been given the Ryanair as his only entry for the graded events over fences at Cheltenham. Owned by Cheveley Park, they already have Allaho and Envoi Allen, and I wonder if he will be aimed at the Grade 2 events back in Ireland. He is nobody's mug, and he if he ran he would have to be under consideration as a horse who could fill the frame.

JUNGLE BOOGIE - 33/1

A horse with plenty of ability, it's crazy to think he is 10 years old and has only run 5 times with 2 of those this season! Moved yards to Henry De Bromhead, he's ran 2 excellent races this season including winning the Savills Chase at Tramore on New Years Day getting the better of the aforementioned Classic Getaway. Given all of his injury troubles over the years, it would need to be bottomless for him to run at the Cheltenham Festival which is unlikely.

FUGITIF - 33/1

A winner of the December Gold Cup last month, he would need to improve 20lb within the next couple of months to be a contender for this race. Given he's rated 157, he's unlikely to run in the Magners Plate Handicap in which he was 2nd last year and will probably run in this race. I'd take a number of Irish horses over him, and 3rd place is what he'll be running for at best.

PIC D'ORHY - 33/1

Seen once this season winning the old Amlin Chase at Ascot, he wasn't an impressive winner given the standard of opposition. Likely to run at Kempton next in the Silviniaco Conti against Banbridge, his main target will be the Ascot Chase in February, and then possibly onto the Melling Chase which he won last year. Unlikely to run, and I think he prefers a flat track.

NOTLONGTILLMAY - 40/1

A favourite of the blog after being put up as an antepost selection for the Paddy Power Gold Cup. Ran a cracking race to finish 2nd to Stage Star, he is likely held by a few in this race. Rated 156, unless they can find a competent conditional who can take off a minimum of 5lb he's likely to be weighted too high to win a handicap too.

Conclusion

I think the evidence suggests Allaho is declining from his wonder years when he won back to back Ryanair's so impressively, but he still sets a good standard here. Hewick and Bravemansgame are high class animals and there's a question mark whether anything in the Ryanair field could replicate Allaho's performance in the King George.

Stage Star didn't get many plaudits after his Turners win last season including from me, but looked a potential winner of this race before bombing out at Cheltenham on New Years Day, and his trainer Paul Nicholls is the right man to get him back on track to run a big race. If he was a bigger price then 5/1 NRNB, you would be tempted to back him, however I'll side with APPRECIATE IT as the selection here at 14/1. His form in the John Durkan looks strong, and he just didn't stay in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown. He looks a different animal this year, and this would be the year to catch him as he's rising 11 next year. Still a lightly raced horse, it's hoped positive tactics will bring about more improvement in this race and he rates the each way bet at 14/1.

Edwardstone looks capable of improving a little bit more over fences stepping up in trip, however I wouldn't put anyone off backing BANBRIDGE at 25/1 and you could strike lucky if the ground is decent enough come the Thursday. If a couple of the main players underperform then I expect Fil Dor to run a consistent race and could fill the frame.

Selections:

Appreciate It - 1pt ew @ 14/1

Banbridge - 0.5pts ew @ 25/1